What Are the Facts?

May 3, 2026 by Leave a Comment

Sometimes people think, “If only I had ____ed, things would have been different” or “If I _____, things will go well.”

These are understandable beliefs, but they are not facts.

About the past, we can’t know with certainty if our efforts would have made what happened better, worse, or made no difference. The universe, and the human lives lived within it, are complex. We can estimate probabilities, but not state certainties.

About the future, we may hope our efforts will have favorable results, but we can’t know with certainty if our efforts today will make things better, worse, or make no difference. 

What can we do?

We can increase the likelihood of achieving desired results by using the best evidence we can find to assess probabilities, then to make plans based on assessed probabilities. 

I use the term “evidence” to mean information used to support or question a claim. Some of that information may be mistaken, incomplete, or misinterpreted. In comparison, a fact is a statement about reality that has been checked, tested, and is supported by evidence. I define “reality” as what actually exists, as opposed to what is believed to exist. 

Based on facts and evidence about reality, probabilities are estimates of how likely something is to happen. From facts and evidence, we can assess probabilities, and make plans.

Plans based on facts, evidence, and assessed probabilities are more likely to match what will really happen. Beliefs may be genuine hopes and wishes, even regarded as knowledge, but they do not require evidence to exist. 

In this framework, knowledge is defined as statements about reality that are supported by evidence. Intuition, a sense of recognition or resonance, or an “inner knowing” may be experienced as knowledge, but without evidence these experiences are still considered beliefs, not based on evidence or on facts supported by evidence.

If a plan matches how things actually work, actions based on that plan are more likely to produce desired results than plans based on beliefs about what might work. 

Why did I write this? I’m trying to decide what to do next based on what’s real and probable. Why is that important? However well-intentioned, beliefs – untested and unsupported by the best available evidence – when applied as care or advice, can cause harm. My hypothesis is that next steps based on how things really are and really work are more likely to produce desired outcomes than steps based on what is believed to work. 

In the midst of the complexity and uncertainty of each life, our lives, and our local, national, and global contexts, I will do my best to use facts, evidence, and assessed probabilities to guide next steps.

Note

“What are the facts?” is a question asked in Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT), a research-backed protocol for mental health challenges founded by Marsha Linehan, Ph.D. 

Last updated 05/03/2026, 7:06 AM U.S. Eastern

All content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for personalized medical, health care, and professional advice.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Two Vines

July 24, 2025 by

With you, I hope we can follow a single thread of thought,
like two vines winding upward together,
growing side by side on the same tree.
I hope what you choose to share with me is chosen with care,
not just to speak, but to let our minds entwine.
Reach for me, and I’ll reach back.
You speak, then I speak.
You again, then I,
two vines spiraling higher,
twisting together on the same living trunk.
– by Anne Giles, translated from Chinese by Nico Ranng, author of Ill Grandeur

Two vinesThis is a microstory about vines from Twig 枝丫, the fantasy series I am writing in Simplified Chinese characters.

Since I’m trying to “think” in Chinese but want to share this microstory with English-speaking friends, I asked Nico Ranng, author of Ill Grandeur, if he would use his knowledge of English and Chinese, sensitivity to the nuances and ironies of life, and beautiful words to translate it. I am so grateful. What I meant, Nico Ranng said.

In these strange times of people talking at each other rather than with each other, of people speaking and speaking with longing to feel heard – or so as not to feel – what this piece says is what I yearn for. In a future chapter of 枝丫2，main character Zhang Laoban will remember his wife having said this to him.

Here’s my original:

和你在一起，我希望我们可以有一条思路，像两根藤蔓一起生长，长在同一棵树上。我希望你有意识地选择跟我分享的内容，目的是你的思想跟我的思想交织在一起。找我，向我伸手，我也会这样做。你说，我说，你说，我说，两根藤蔓一起向上生长在同一棵树上。

Image source: ChatGPT. (2025, July 21). A watercolor painting of a close-up of a tree trunk with two vines growing together and up [AI-generated image]. OpenAI. https://chat.openai.com/

More about this project: I Am Writing a Fantasy Series in Simplified Chinese Characters.

All content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for personalized medical, health care, and professional advice.

Filed Under: Chinese

I Am Writing a Fantasy Series in Simplified Chinese Characters.

July 18, 2025 by

What is the fantasy series about?

Novels in the Twig: 枝丫 series are set in an unnamed Beijing hutong in a contemporary, alternate reality where the 树, a mysterious, tree-shaped organism implanted at birth, monitors and directs each individual’s thoughts.

The series is written at an intermediate level for adult readers of Simplified Chinese characters. It’s available on Substack for free.

What is the first novel in the series about?

In 枝丫1, Xiao Li has obeyed the tree’s rules all his life, limiting his words and actions to avoid its punishments. But when his father, Lao Li, begins – painfully, twig by twig – to remove the tree from his own body, and Xiao Li meets a woman at work whose tree has been almost entirely removed, he faces a life-changing dilemma. Will Xiao Li continue living as he always has, following the tree’s dictates? And what will he do about the 树 and his young son, Xiaoxiao Li?

枝丫1：Chapter 1 | 枝丫1：Table of contents | Complete 枝丫1 story, just 汉字

What is 枝丫2 about?

Zhang Laoban has worked hard to build a quiet life of principle after enduring hardships in his youth, then losing his wife and daughter in a tragic accident. In his seventies and deeply introspective, Zhang Laoban is the proprietor of a hutong bookstore and a member of a secret group opposed to the 树. As have many of the group’s members, he has cut most of the tree from his body with his own knife. When his sandtimer – a gift from his late wife used in the group’s meetings – disappears, Zhang Laoban finds himself in anguish from old wounds he thought were scars. With the help of his new assistant, Yang Zhuli, Zhang Laoban becomes a reluctant detective, navigating complex relationships with hutong locals, co-traveling with loss – of innocence, of loved ones, of independence, and with the intentional loss of the 树 – and seeking the location and return of the sandtimer.

枝丫2：Chapter 1 | 枝丫2：Table of contents | 枝丫2 so far, just 汉字

Why are you writing 枝丫？

To attempt to create art. To explore the opposites-can-both-be-true power of 树-like ideologies to offer order and predictability while, at the same time, restrict human creativity, connection, and possibility. To imagine interaction in Chinese while living in a place with few opportunities to speak Chinese in person. To attempt to give myself and other learners the 3 to 17 exposures to a new word needed to learn it. To attempt to be of service to fellow adult learners of Mandarin Chinese who struggle to find texts that take on the human condition at a readable level.

Do you write it by yourself?

I write and type the first draft of each chapter in the Chinese I know, inserting English words for words in Chinese I don’t know. I consult multiple sources to find the likely Chinese characters that convey my meaning. I consult with several italki teachers.  I present the final draft to my editor, Mary, 侯慧颖 Hóu Huìyǐng. She and I meet three times per week to discuss the chapter, correct errors, and refine wording. 

How long have you been studying Chinese?

I took one semester of Chinese in 1981 at the University of Connecticut. I returned to studying Chinese in 2020. I speak and read Mandarin Chinese at a lower intermediate level.

Aren’t you too old to study Chinese?

At 66, no, I am not. The findings of neuroscience contradict the myth that second language learning is ineffectual in adulthood. In fact, the intricately, deeply and extensively networked mature adult human brain may be primed for second language acquisition, particularly Mandarin Chinese.

Why do you study Chinese?

To connect. To attempt to discover the depth and breadth of insight and understanding available to a human who can speak one of the world’s oldest continuously spoken and written languages, perhaps so close to the language used by the very first human able to utter a sound, expressing the deepest human longing inherent to any communication: “I see you. Please see me.”

“[Mandarin Chinese is] one of the most geopolitically important languages in the twenty-first century.”
– Jing Tsu, Kingdom of Characters: The Language Revolution that Made China Modern, 2022

“China…is the defining political reality of our time. He [Adam Tooze, Columbia University], called it the ‘master key’ to understanding modernity. The ‘biggest laboratory of organized modernization that has ever been or ever will be.’ A place where the industrial histories of the West now read like prefaces to something larger.”
– Kaiser Kuo, The Thing We Still Can’t Say, 07/17/2025

Have you ever been to China?

In my imagination, I’ve been in China for over 50 years, ever since I read a Margaret Beeks Elementary School Scholastic book fair copy of Pearl S. Buck’s The Good Earth. I studied Chinese history in college with Dr. Young-tsu Wong, one of the people to whom this work is dedicated. In real life, no, I have not been to China.

Where did you get the idea for 枝丫?

When I was thinking of the process of becoming aware of, and extricating, problematic beliefs that can deepen pain and create suffering after traumatic experiences, a ghastly image came to me. Beliefs can be so deep, so corporal, so mythical. Questioning legacy beliefs can feel like disobedience to a revered, totalitarian regime. Removing problematic beliefs can require torturous self-determination, akin to cutting the tip of one’s own finger, using tweezers, and pulling out a living thing, a dark, thin, branch-like twig, broken from a larger tree within one’s own body. Chilling. The image of that tree – 树- became the central theme and motif for the story.

What do you have in mind as you write 枝丫?

I do my best to “show, don’t tell” in the story. I attempt to follow the guidance of William Carlos Williams: “No ideas but in things,” William Zinnser: “Is every word doing new work?”, and Samuel Taylor Coleridge for poetry: “the best words in their best order.” Although it is difficult to do, I have in mind Ralph Waldo Emerson’s guidance in “Self-Reliance” – an essay I read and studied with Dr. Doreen Hunter in 1980 – “Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string.”

Against injustice, I may not have physical might, wealth, power, or connections. But I have a voice. And my voice is bilingual. ​If they come for those who speak Chinese, they come for me. Through my art, I stand up and speak up. 

Illustration by Lear for 枝丫2： 03: 第三章: 沙漏不见了.

Updated 07/20/2025

All content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for personalized medical, health care, and professional advice.

Filed Under: Chinese

I need all of my awareness.

November 4, 2024 by

I anticipate needing all of my awareness to help myself with matters at hand. This is a plain language summary of what I know from my reviews of the research literature, training, and experience about how to help myself in challenging times. This is what I say to myself.

The following set of statements is written as you-statements. I am speaking from my inner wisdom* to the part of me that can become aware and take action.

Right now, you can do what needs to be done.

  1. Regain mastery of your attention. 
  2. Shift your attention to the air coming in and out of your nostrils.
  3. Shift your attention to your values and priorities – what needs to be done for yourself, those you love, and those depending on you.
  4. Do it. Take action.

This set of statements is written as I-statements, spoken by my inner wisdom.

If in doubt, I can access my inner wisdom.

I need a tolerable range of inner stability to handle my inner distress and to make conscious, informed decisions about what is going on within me, in my life, and around me.

If I experience myself as overwhelmed with feelings and thoughts, I can take a look at the awareness circles and do a cognitive therapy-based ABC Worksheet.

If my inner intensity is too high, I need to talk myself down to a more stable range. If my inner intensity is too low, I need to talk myself up to a more stable range.

I can take action based on my values and priorities even though I feel afraid. I feel fear in the present. I feel anxiety about what might happen in the future. I am not alone in feeling concerned. Yet, what is important to me – my values and priorities – are also strong.

I can co-travel with fear, with anxiety, with pain, with disappointment, with regret, with grief, with all inner distress and all outer stressors.

I am here for me. My inner self is not what I feel, not what I think, and is not what is happening or has happened to me. My true self is separate and pure and whole.

My brain is here for me. Regardless of the debate about what consciousness is, my full brain’s whole ability to see my feelings and thoughts and access my inner wisdom feels real and trustworthy to me. The human brain has evolved to recover stability, to be resilient, and to be helpful. I rely on my full brain’s 100 billion neurons to be there for me, to work with me, and to help me.

I verify the accuracy of the content of sentences I say to myself or others say to me. 

I can make sure the content I use in my inner dialogue and in my life is logical, fact-based, evidence-based, and reality-based. I use accurate, precise, specific definitions for terms that relate to me and to my well-being. I use reliable, credible, authoritative, expert sources to verify information. Deeply-held and deeply-felt beliefs, rules and narratives offered by custom and convention, and advice and opinions offered by social media influencers may seem true – and may be wished to be true – but may not be based on fact.

Strengthened by awareness and knowledge of myself and what’s real, I can make reality-based decisions on behalf of myself and others.

I can monitor my energy and adjust to maintain a stable range.

To be of optimal service to myself and others, I monitor my mental and physical energy reserves and keep them as stably full as possible. The “big four”: sleep, nutrition, exercise, schedule, all are paramount.

I need to be cautious about a “big ask,” i.e. asking myself to do more, do other, do better, exert more, or give more. I need to be cautious about responding to a “big ask” from others. I have limited attention, energy, time, and money. I need to give it, through my values, to my priorities.

If I am unsure of what’s mine to do or question the extent of my influence or control, the three-lane highway metaphor can offer a welcome reminder of the extents and limits of what I can do with regard to myself, others, and the world.

If I need help, I can be part of the solution by collecting data. I know that nearly everyone is overstressed and nearly everywhere is understaffed. Using databases of research literature, such as PubMed and Google Scholar, I can look for research that is objective, methodologically sound, replicable, and peer-reviewed to inform myself about my situation. By writing or typing a one-page timeline or log with related information about my situation, I can help others use the time they have for me directly and efficiently.

I can become aware of – and stop myself from engaging in – these natural, understandable, but unhelpful patterns.

Ruminating. I might repeat the same thought or scenario over and over again, trying to replay it or change it. This is my beautiful humanity wishing things had gone better or could go better. The past is done and the future is uncertain. I can regain control of my attention and shift my attention to what is important to me and to do what needs to be done.

Doomscrolling. Searching the news is my beautiful brain’s understandable attempt to ease my distress by finding some kind of reason, logic, order, predictability, and certainty to the world. Reality is complex, however, and no matter what I find or how much I find, more complexity will reveal itself and my distress will continue.

Self-criticism, self-judgement, self-reprimand. I, as do most humans, have done the best I can with what I know to do, the effort I have to give, and the resources I have. Contrary to cultural belief, self-criticism doesn’t foster motivation, but compromises it.

Repeating statements about myself, others, and the world that are beliefs, not facts. “I should be/have ____, they should be/have _____, the world should be/have _____,” are all statements of wishful belief. They are not factual, realistic, or helpful.

Acting on impulse or acting out of habit or compulsion. I pause. I become aware of my values and priorities. Before making a choice, I do a cost-benefit analysis with rank ordering. I see that all choices have downers, that no choice is perfectly clear, relief-giving, or reassuring. I acknowledge that opposites can both be true, that I can both want and not want at the same time. I can co-travel with ambivalence, uncertainty, and regret.

Trying not to feel grief. Grief is the brain’s evolved way to adjust to loss. The existence of love, attachment, bonding, belonging, connection are detectable in the human brain. I can’t will my brain to change. I have to give it time to learn to do without what’s gone. I can ease into grief. I can adjust my inner intensity if it gets too high, but I can ease into my sorrow. It’s real. It’s for real reasons.

. . . . .

I hypothesize that the central adult human task is to gain the perspective, approach, and skills to be able to – within oneself, with self-kindness, without self-judgment, and without external support from others or the environment – feel all, think all, experience all, all at once, no matter how many burdens one carries, how small or large they may be, or how fast new ones keep coming; no matter how vulnerable, uncertain, impaired, hurt, backed into a corner, or threatened one is or feels; no matter who is present or missing; no matter how deeply one longs to be wanted, known, understood, and loved, yet is not – to be able to function, assess, pause or initiate, all at once, and to take humane, principled action, no matter what is happening, no matter what has happened, and no matter what is to come.

*The concept of “inner wisdom” is informed by:

Updated 08/03/2025

All content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for personalized medical, health care, and professional advice.

Filed Under: Guide

Questions for Couples

September 21, 2024 by

Before marrying or moving in together, partners may find discussing the following questions of value. People who are individually aware of the traits, skills, and wishes they bring to a relationship may be more likely to negotiate a conscious, enriching partnership.

The questions are worded to take turns asking each other. For long-term partners, exploring these questions and renegotiating some of their answers may be helpful.

Questions for couples

1. Let’s begin with the end in mind.

If marriage is under consideration: Why are we getting married? Or, why did we get married?

Marriage originated as a practical matter to build political and economic alliances, to control property ownership, and to ensure legitimate heirs to that property. (The first recorded evidence of marriage is from Mesopotamia in 2350 BC). Cultural beliefs came later.

Are we planning on building a dynasty? If not, if we have no great alliances to forge and no great wealth to pass to heirs, we could be life partners without marriage. By considering marriage, are we unconsciously complying with cultural norms? Why, exactly, are we doing this/did we do this?

2. What are your beliefs, assumptions, and expectations about yourself, the other, and how marriages work?

Why ask? One of the greatest challenges faced by couples is that each partner can hold the unconscious belief that the other person can read their hearts and minds, knows intuitively what the partner needs and wants, and will naturally do what they want and agree with them out of love and respect. Sometimes, unspoken cultural beliefs about “how marriages should be” are in play.

When one partner doesn’t do as expected or wished, the other partner might feel any number of feelings, including feeling surprised, hurt, betrayed, resentful, misunderstood, disrespected, and unloved.

Becoming aware of one’s unconscious beliefs prior to becoming partners can help prevent unnecessary misunderstandings and provide awareness, recognition, and clarity when problems arise.

What are your beliefs, assumptions, and expectations in the these categories?

What are your expectations in these categories?

3. Ideally, the combined power of partners working together is greater than the power of each working separately.

a) What will be our division of labor? Will we do tasks together, take turns, have assigned tasks based on skill or preference? How will we accomplish tasks neither of us wants to do?

b) In what areas are we willing to hire paid services to do household tasks? Housecleaning, cooking, accountant?

c) In what areas do you see the potential for us creating synergy together? How might we do that?

4. Ideally, partners in a partnership are able to talk about everything; no subject is taboo. What are some subjects that are more uncomfortable for you than others?

Maintaining household order, sanitary conditions

What level of order is expected and where? Who cleans what? How often?

Bathroom

Do you leave the lid off of the toothpaste tube? If you leave the lid off, and the other partner prefers it on, how would you propose resolving this?*

Toilet seat up, down, toilet paper roll facing outward or inward, bidet handle one way or the other?

When we are getting ready in the morning or at night, will we be in the bathroom together or separately? If we’re in there alone, bathroom door open, closed, sometimes open, sometimes closed? What will be the reason?

Bedroom

How will we handle dressing, undressing, and nudity?

What are you shy about?

What are your expectations for frequency of intercourse? Other forms of sexual intimacy?

Money

Do you track your spending? Do you know how much it costs to be you?

We are individuals and a partnership. How will we allocate and budget individual money and partnership money?

At what number in your bank account balance (savings/checking) do you start feeling nervous or are starting to relax a little?

What is the monetary threshold for making unilateral monetary decisions? At what level does a partner need to confer before they buy?

Do you turn off the lights when you leave an unoccupied room? Why or why not?

Health, substances, behaviors

How often do you go to the dentist? How often do you get a physical?

What is your purpose for using substances? Caffeine (tea, coffee, energy drinks), nicotine, alcohol, marijuana, other substances? What is your level of use of the internet, gambling, pornography?

Us

Do you tend to over-function or under-function in relationships?

What will be our strategy for negotiating to find common ground when we have differing views?*

What will be our strategy for addressing one partner bringing something new to the partnership? If one of us is offered a new job, develops a new hobby, or wants to go back to school, how will we address the impact of one person’s preferences or situation on the  partnership? What if one of us develops a troubling behavior or returns to one? What if there is an unexpected pregnancy? What if one of us is diagnosed with a serious illness? How do we negotiate newness?*

How often will we communicate via text, phone, and/or email? At what length? What subjects are okay for text and which ones are better left to talking in person?

What is your definition of privacy? What about us are you open to me talking about with co-workers, friends, and family members?

How often will we have a “date night,” time for us to be together, just us, without friends, family, or children?

How often will we have a “housemates’ meeting” to talk about how the household is running and to talk about, and plan for, future purchases?

What do you think about our ages? Are we close in age, far apart in age? What impact do you think this has now? How about in the future?

Baby

If the baby vomits or the baby’s diaper leaks, who cleans up the mess? Both equally often, one more often than the other? Why?

If a baby, toddler, small child, child, teenager does something that you don’t wish it to do, how do you handle that? What is your discipline policy?

Other people

What is your policy about looking at and/or talking with members of the same sex? The opposite sex? In our friend circle? At work? What is your definition of an affair?

Hardships

If something upsetting has happened, do you tend to internalize (blame yourself) or externalize (blame others)?

If you have had a shock, loss, or experienced a trauma, do you prefer quiet time, to cry, to talk immediately, or something else before we talk? Are there words of comfort you find particularly helpful that I might offer you?

If you are sick, do you prefer alone time, company, or a mix of alone time and time with someone else? In what proportions?

If the biological consequences of illness have made a mess, can you usually clean it up yourself?

If you feel angry, what do you do? Do you hold it in? Do you let it out? When you let it out, what do you do? Do you throw things? Do you hit? This has to be asked: Will you hit me?

Thinking process, values, and dealbreakers

How do you decide the difference between a fact and an opinion?

What are the three most important values to you?

What three traits in your partner do you most hope will remain constant throughout your shared lives?

What actions on the part of your partner might cause an irredeemable breach in the relationship and end it?

(Doing these values and priorities exercises together might be interesting and helpful.)

General

What are three reasons almost anyone would want to stay with you?

What are three reasons almost anyone might find staying with you problematic?

*The Most Important Question of All

How will we navigate and negotiate change, disagreement and conflict?

. . . . .

Other questions and resources for couples

Illustration by Derek Zheng

Last updated 2024-10-26

All content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. Consult a qualified professional for personalized medical, health care, and professional advice.

Filed Under: Relationships
Next Page »